October 4, 2022

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Reporter’s Notebook: Russia’s intentions appear with the increase of Ukrainian forces

Reporter's Notebook: Russia's intentions appear with the increase of Ukrainian forces

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Many in the West saw it Russian President Russian President Vladimir Putin You should probably do “something” that is meaningful.

After all, he didn’t muster all those forces Ukraine Boundaries for a bit of exercise. Or even a great workout.

But according to Dmitry Soslov, Russia’s domestic foreign policy official, Russia’s moves are going according to plan.

Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, told Fox News.

From the Russian point of view, and this is the prevailing opinion already prevailing in Moscow, without the concentration of Russian forces, without hostile rhetoric, without speculation about a “military-technical” response by Russia, demands for Russian security guarantees would have gone straight to the rubbish bins everywhere in the the West “.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 1.
(Yuri Kochichkov/Paul, file)

Soslov explained that Russia views escalation as a “diplomatic tool”, so Ukraine should not rely on seeing the back of its tanks until Moscow’s demands are met. These demands, known to many now, are a pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO and that a buffer zone of Eastern Europe of some sort between the alliance and Russia has been formed. Key also: that Donbass, which includes those eastern Ukrainian regions now controlled by Russian-backed separatists, was granted a significant degree of autonomy as stipulated in the as-yet-unrealized Minsk Accords.

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Implementation of the Minsk Accords would provide the kind of Ukraine that Russia wants: a decentralized Ukraine, a Ukraine which, by definition, cannot be rooted on an anti-Russian basis, or on Ukrainian ethno-nationalism, is today in Ukrainian language, Ukrainian nationalist ideology, etc. and so on. To that, as the basis of their national identity.” Suslov continued, adding that Russia did not want Ukraine to be a “Western fortress on the edge of the Russian border.”

But for Ukrainians looking to a future linked to Europe, Russia’s desires were not their concern. They worried about losing more territory to Russia after what happened to Crimea in 2014. The West stood by their rights to choose the alliances or security arrangements they wanted, and to decide their own destiny.

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Suslov claimed that a complete invasion of Ukraine would not serve Russia’s interests. Instead, he said, it would “result in huge costs – economic, social, political, foreign policy, military. And it wouldn’t be a kind of show. It would be a very difficult military operation, followed by a guerrilla war, because there would be a rebellion from different places in the world.” Ukraine, etc. And I do not think that anyone in the world among the great powers, including China, would openly support Russia in such an endeavour.”

Soslov added: “I think Russia will continue to appear as if it is preparing for an invasion unless Russian demands are met.”

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I asked Suslov if the crippling energy costs hurting Europe were part of this pressure campaign. He said no; He has seen Europe’s problems as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and a slower-than-expected transition to green energy on the continent. But, he added, Russia was certainly not seeking a bailout by voluntarily turning on the taps.

“It is strange for the EU to be surprised by this Russian refusal because Russia would certainly have increased the volume of its supplies to the EU if we were friends, if relations were based on partnership. But come on, we perceive each other as adversaries. So you expect friendly behavior from the party that made the EU His opponent against him, whose sanctions the European Union has adopted and is still promising to impose new and new ones? This is strange.

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